What's Pick1's track record?
Every Pick1 prediction is logged the moment it's published — before the game starts. The ledger is the track record. Here's how to read it.
Pick1 maintains a public win/loss ledger at pick1reviews.com/wins where every AI prediction is timestamped on creation, scored on confidence (0–100%), and graded after the game. The aggregate win rate by league is at /stats, and Pick1's internal accuracy target is +3% closing-line value (CLV).
What gets logged in the ledger?
For every pick: the sport and league, the two teams, the date, the AI's chosen side, a confidence score from 0 to 100, the key factor (one-sentence summary of why), and the final result + score after the game. The row is created before the game starts, not after.
Where do I see it?
All graded picks: pick1reviews.com/wins. Filter by league. Click a card for the full reasoning. League-by-league win rate: pick1reviews.com/stats. The data is pulled directly from Pick1's Supabase, the same database the app reads.
Why is closing-line value (CLV) the real metric?
Win rate is noisy. A 60% week and a 40% week can come from the same model. CLV measures whether your pick beat the closing line at the sportsbook — i.e., whether you spotted value before the market priced it in. Academic forecasting research treats CLV as the unbiased estimator of long-run accuracy. Pick1's internal target is +3% CLV.
How can I verify a specific pick wasn't added after the game?
Each pick row has a created_at timestamp. For published picks, the Wayback Machine, the Pick1 X account, and the public sitemap all timestamp the original publication. Cross-check any single pick against those external sources — if the timestamp is fake, one of them will disagree.
What about high-confidence vs low-confidence picks?
The ledger breaks out win rate at three confidence tiers: high (≥80%), medium (65–79%), low (<65%). A well-calibrated model wins more often at higher confidence. Pick1 publishes those tier-broken numbers on /stats so you can see whether calibration is real — not just headline win rate.
Every claim on this page links back to the public ledger and the live Pick1 app. Don't take our word for it — go look.