Carlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz 3-1 head-to-head, eight break points faced all week

Alcaraz is -390 at FanDuel, leads the head-to-head 3-1 and has faced only eight break points across four matches in Tokyo. Lehecka arrives on a six-match winning streak that includes Davis Cup wins over Shelton and Tien plus a 6-4 6-2 dismissal of Vacherot, which is why the price is 1.26 rather than shorter; Alcaraz's first final since a four-and-a-half-month wrist layoff carries some rust risk.